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This year's performance is the worst since the epidemic, and Starbucks will reduce the salary increase for its employees. An internal document shows that in view of the company's worst financial performance since the epidemic, Starbucks will reduce the salary increase for its coffee shop employees. According to different qualifications, this year's salary increase is generally between 2% and 3%, while last year's salary increase was at least 3%, and employees who have served for five years or more were at least 5%. The salary increase will take effect on December 30, and employees will see the change of payroll on January 10 or January 17.Soochow securities: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in December. According to the soochow securities Research Report, the CPI of the United States rebounded to +2.75% in November as scheduled, and the CPI that did not exceed expectations cleared the last obstacle for the Fed to cut interest rates in December. In the short term, the combination of low base and high viscosity means that CPI is expected to continue to rebound to +2.8% in December. In the medium term, Trump is expected to drive out illegal immigrants on the first day after taking office, which will aggravate the risk of stagflation in the labor market. However, the intensification of wage inflation stickiness may be concealed by the downward movement of non-agricultural centers in the same period, the expectation of increasing oil prices and the high base in the first half of 2025. The market's concern about "stagnation" may provide room for the Fed to cut interest rates smoothly in the first half of 2025. However, in the second half of 2025, the cumulative interest rate cuts will give support to the economy, the persistence of inflation stickiness and the landing of Trump's tax reduction policy will force the Fed to cut interest rates. It is expected that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25bps in December, 25bps in March and June next year, and stop cutting interest rates in the second half of the year. The end point of the policy interest rate in 2025 is [3.75,4.0]%.The A-share financing balance hit a new high of more than 9 years, and the big consumption sector broke out. According to china securities journal, on December 12, the A-share market opened lower and went higher. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by nearly 1%, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by 1% and the Growth Enterprise Market Index rose by more than 1%. More than 3,500 stocks in the entire A-share market rose, with more than 150 stocks trading daily, and the big consumer sector broke out. The market turnover was 1.89 trillion yuan, which has exceeded 1 trillion yuan for 52 consecutive trading days, setting a new record for the A-share market. In terms of funds, Wind data shows that as of December 11th, the financing balance in the A-share market was 1,875.85 billion yuan, a record high of over 9 years. In the first three trading days of this week, the financing balance "increased three times in a row", with a cumulative increase of 22.579 billion yuan. Analysts believe that short-term ample liquidity and optimistic policy expectations are still the main support of the market. In the medium and long term, the A-share market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward under the dual promotion of policy expectations and economic trends.

Japanese and Korean stock markets opened lower, with the Nikkei 225 index down 0.56% at 39,624.05. South Korea's KOSPI index opened down 0.3% to 2,473.75 points.CITIC Securities: Relevant central state-owned enterprises engaged in business and equity cooperation with Huawei are expected to enjoy Huawei's empowerment. CITIC Securities pointed out that at the moment when the four sectors of intelligent selection are gathering together and the HI model is fully expanded, we believe that the investment core of Huawei's OEM is "change and invariance", that is, business model and partner iteration, but the top-level design of "not building cars, helping car companies build good cars" and the commercial appeal of maximizing sales and profits are not avoided. In addition, in the stage of deep cooperation with Huawei, the organizational structure and corporate governance of partners have been greatly improved. Similarly, we believe that relevant central state-owned enterprises engaged in business and equity cooperation with Huawei are expected to enjoy Huawei's empowerment, and Huawei will help the reform of state-owned enterprises.People's Daily: Ensure that artificial intelligence is always a "friend". At present, the ability of artificial intelligence is comparable to that of human brain in many aspects, but it cannot accurately distinguish right from wrong in terms of value. This means that it is necessary to strengthen the supervision and regulation of artificial intelligence from many aspects. In recent years, many countries, including China, have introduced artificial intelligence development plans, management methods and supervision principles, precisely to ensure that technology truly serves people and benefits society. No matter how far artificial intelligence develops, it all comes from human design and is an extension of human wisdom. Artificial intelligence is doing more and more work and becoming more and more intelligent. We must take precautions to ensure that it is always a "friend".

Full-page observation of People's Daily: Accelerate the construction of world-class universities and advantageous disciplines with China characteristics.CITIC Jiantou: With the increase of policy stimulus, the pro-cyclical catering chain is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the expected improvement. According to CITIC Jiantou Research Report, since September, heavy meetings have continuously released a clear policy signal to strive to achieve the goals and tasks of economic and social development throughout the year, and policies such as lowering the standard, reducing interest rates, lowering the mortgage interest rate, supporting local governments to resolve government affairs risks, issuing special government bonds to supplement core Tier 1 capital, using various tools to promote the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, and increasing support and guarantee for key groups have been released one after another. Focusing on boosting consumption and expanding effective domestic demand, the food and beverage industry is expected to usher in an inflection point, and its performance and valuation are expected to continue to improve. The liquor sector is expected to rebound with the boost of the domestic economy and the activation of household consumption, and the business scene and mass consumption boom will return to the consumption upgrading channel, and the profitability of leading liquor companies is expected to accelerate the repair. At present, the overall valuation of the liquor sector is still at a low level, and the long-term investment value is prominent. With the increase of policy stimulus, the pro-cyclical catering chain is expected to take the lead in benefiting from the expected improvement. Continue to be optimistic: 1) The leisure snacks and beverage industries maintain a high degree of prosperity, and new channels bring important incremental opportunities to companies in the industry; 2) Combined with the catering channels that are recovering continuously, it is suggested to pay attention to condiments, beer and catering chain labels with innovative products or reform expectations. At the same time, the current market price of molasses has further dropped from the previous month, which is of great help to yeast enterprises to improve their profit elasticity. 3) The inflection point of the raw milk cycle is approaching, the gift scene is expected to be repaired, and the dairy products continue to upgrade their structure, with high dividends and outstanding cost performance.The 22nd meeting of the expert working group of the Shanghai Defense Ministers' Association was held in Beijing. On the morning of December 13th, Senior Colonel Wu Qian, director of the Information Bureau of the Ministry of National Defense and spokesman of the Ministry of National Defense, released news on the recent military-related issues. Wu Qian: On December 12th, China's Ministry of National Defense held the 22nd meeting of the expert working group of the meeting of defense ministers of SCO member states in Beijing. More than 30 representatives from SCO member states and the Secretariat attended the meeting, and all parties had an in-depth exchange of views on strengthening pragmatic cooperation in the field of defense and security and promoting the construction of cooperation mechanisms.